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Accounting for availability bias, the time animals are unavailable to be detected by visual surveys, is a critical component for accurately estimating animal abundance and distribution in density spatial models. These models are used for conservation and environmental compliance purposes by the U.S. Navy, other federal agencies, and regional stakeholders. For air breathing animals at sea, such as sea turtles and marine mammals, the proportion of time spent below the sea surface can range from 5-90%, depending on species, season, and animal behavior. If availability bias estimates are not applied to spatial density models, animal abundance may be underestimated by as much as an order of magnitude in some cases, hindering conservation efforts, and significantly underestimating the potential impacts of human activities on these protected species. Applying robust availability bias estimates to density spatial models should be considered ‘best available science’ and actively pursued for the newer generations of density spatial models being produced.
Availability bias is often applied as a single, static number such as the mean proportion of time spent below the water based on depth profiles of tagged animals, or other similar metrics. However, animal dive behavior can vary widely by season, habitat, and life stage. More complex approaches that represent animal availability as spatially varying surfaces can now be developed and applied to density spatial models. Several frameworks have been implemented for sea turtles, including spatiotemporal regression models and Generalized Additive Models that relate dive behavior to environmental covariates. These models can estimate animal availability bias over broad spatial extents, diverse environmental conditions, and seasonal or finer temporal scales, assuming adequate sampling by tagged animals.
Along the east coast of the United States, there is a critical data gap for dive data appropriate for availability bias estimates for federally endangered Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and threatened green (Chelonia mydas) sea turtles. This is due in part to these species being either smaller (e.g., Kemp’s ridleys, or juvenile green turtles that are more common than adults in more northern U.S. waters) and difficult to tag with depth recorders due to the structure of the keratin on their shells. Recent advances in tag technology have made tagging these species in the numbers required to generate robust availability bias estimates possible. Both species occur within nearshore and continental shelf waters ranging from New England to North Carolina on a seasonal basis, and from North Carolina to Florida year-round. These waters include multiple Navy training and testing ranges and other areas of interest to regional stakeholders such as wind lease areas and commercial ports.
This project aims to tag 75 green and 75 Kemp’s ridley turtles over 3 years, in multiple seasons and locations along the east coast, in order to robustly sample these species’ seasonal and year-round habitats with the end goal of producing spatial models of availability bias for both species at a seasonal or lower spatial resolution. Wild caught animals will be tagged at the Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge and St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant, located on the east coast of Florida. Additional rehabilitated and wild caught animals will be tagged and released in partnership with several aquarium and rehabilitation centers in and north of Florida, the exact mix to be determined based on seasonal turtle availability. In addition to the availability bias data products, the tracking and dive data collected as a part of this project will provide a valuable ecological baseline for other studies, as these species are underrepresented in the tagging record in the region.
The tags being utilized are new, lower profile models of Wildlife Computers SPLASH10 tags. These tags are appropriate for tagging juvenile through adult specimens of both species, allowing maximum flexibility for tagging permits and available animals, as well as a range of turtle sizes to best represent size-based physiological differences in behavior. No animals smaller than 30 cm straight carapace length (SCL) will be tagged as this is the smallest size generally considered to be visible from aerial survey platforms. The Wildlife computer dive data products are appropriate for calculating the dive statistics required for availability bias surface modeling, such as percentage time below a dive threshold and dive and surface intervals. Tags will not exceed 2-5% of the turtle's weight in air, and transmitter designs and attachment methods will be selected to minimize drag per federal and state tagging requirements for sea turtles. No turtles that are injured/ill or fibropapillomatosis positive will be selected for this telemetry study.
Tags will be deployed over the course of the year, as animals are acquired, with the bulk deployed between spring and fall each year. Some tags may be reserved for deployments as late as March in the first two years of tagging to allow for maximum flexibility with the species and age classes tagged, and to sample southern overwintering habitat.
In spring, prior to tagging years 2 and 3, an evaluation of tag deployments and acquired telemetry data will be undertaken to ensure the data collected is robust and to assess whether any changes to tag attachment methodology, tag programming, or data collection is required. Additionally, the mix of species tagged, and the geographic coverage of tag data will be assessed, adjusting planned deployment locations and species mix as appropriate to tag roughly even numbers of both species across the three years of tagging, and sampling as many relevant environments as possible. Year 4 will be the capstone analysis, fitting a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), or other appropriate statistical framework, relating environmental covariates to dive behavior. GAMs fit flexible relationships between a response variable (animal availability metrics) and explanatory covariates including remotely sensed environmental conditions, temporal covariates, and categorial considerations such as sex or size class. This allows for complex relationships to be modeled both spatially and temporally, as we would expect animal behavior to change as conditions and habitats change. Selected environmental covariates will plausibly influence animal dive behavior and hence, availability. Example candidate covariates include temperature, habitat structure, prey fields, and productivity metrics.
To date 47 tags have been deployed. Thirty-seven green turtles and ten Kemp’s ridley turtles have been tagged. Green turtle locations ranged as far north as southern South Carolina, as far south as the northern Cuban coast, as far west as the western Florida Keys, and as far east as the Blake Plateau. Kemp’s ridley turtle locations ranged from Chesapeake Bay in the north, to the Florida Keys in the south. No Kemp’s ridley turtles moved east of the continental shelf; however, to the west, one animal passed through the Florida Keys and into Mississippi waters before transmissions ceased.
Year 2 moved the study toward providing robust, defensible availability bias models for green and Kemp’s ridley sea turtles on the East Coast. The current study results should be interpreted with caution, given the relatively small number of deployments to date, particularly for Kemp’s ridley turtles (n=10 deployments), which limits the available information both spatially and temporally. Availability generally increased as the depth threshold at which animals were assumed to be able to be seen increased. This is to be expected as more of the water column is considered to be visible. The availability bias estimates from the 2-m depth histograms and dive behavior were similar.
For the remainder of Year 2, the study team will continue to update the existing analyses as transmissions complete and more deployments occur. Future analyses include: (1) moving from a CRW model to a movement persistence or Hidden Markov model approach, which could allow inference on whether and how dive behavior changes with animal behavioral state, though this has proven inconclusive within other regions (DiMatteo et al. unpublished data from the Mediterranean Sea); (2) expanding the scope of the environmental sampling assessment; and (3) beginning to fit exploratory models to data to guide future modeling decisions and better understand the relationship of availability bias to environmental factors.
2024-2027
U.S. East Coast
Telemetry tagging, spatial modelling
Dr. Kate Mansfield
Director, Marine Turtle Research Group
University of Central Florida
Andrew DiMatteo
CheloniData LLC
Total - $807k, FY26 - $184k
Program/Project Manager
Joel T. Bell
NAVFAC Atlantic
Environmental Conservation, Marine Resources Section
Deputy Program Manager
Jackie Bort
NAVFAC Atlantic
Environmental Conservation, Marine Resources Section
Observation and tagging data
Animal Telemetry Network
Building on Year 1 deployments, Year 2 moved the study toward providing robust, defensible availability bias models for green and Kemp’s ridley sea turtles on the East Coast. The current study results should be interpreted with caution, given the relatively small number of deployments to date, particularly for Kemp’s ridley turtles (n=10 deployments), which limits the available information both spatially and temporally. Collecting 18 months of data and expanding the analysis, compared to 6 months when the 2024 annual report (DiMatteo and Mansfield 2025) was written, reinforced several findings. Availability bias generally increased as the depth threshold at which animals were assumed to be able to be seen increased. This is to be expected as more of the water column is considered to be visible. The availability bias estimates from the 2-m depth histograms and dive behavior were similar.
The study team proposed deploying up to 50 Wildlife Computers satellite-linked telemetry tags per year for 3 years, split evenly between Kemp’s ridley and green sea turtles (or as encounters allow), at several sites along the East Coast ranging from Florida (FL) to Massachusetts (MA). In partnership with several rehabilitation and research groups, the study team aims to collect and record sea turtle behavioral data in multiple representative environments and times of year